On this page I keep a record of recommendations that I have made for specific political contests. This does not include every contest in which I have had an opinion, it doesn't even include every contest in which I have publicly stated an opinion, but it does include every contest in which I have felt sufficiently confident in my opinion as to put a recommendation on my website (or before that, in my Candidate Scoring System reports). This way my recommendations can be judged with hindsight to see if I made the right call or not.
| Election | My recommendation |
| 2021 California gubernatorial recall election | Initially recommended No on recall/Kevin Faulconer; switched in early August to No on recall/Kevin Paffrath after calculating the importance of ensuring a Democratic replacement for Senator Feinstein |
| 2021 NYC mayoral primaries | Garcia > Yang > Wiley > Adams |
| 2021 Georgia Senate elections | Warnock (D) and Ossoff (D), simply based on the general preference for Democrats over Republicans |
| 2020 US presidential election | Joe Biden |
| 2020 US congressional elections | Democrats in all districts |
| 2020 California ballot propositions | Yes on 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 22I wrote: "Yes per Scott Alexander and Max Ghenis. According to LA Neoliberals, the policy change is good whereas the stipulation against legislative revision is bad, making it 'mixed.' But to be fair, AB5 passed by a huge legislative margin, so the 7/8 requirement is somewhat understandable. And taking a broader perspective, I think it's good for labor law to accommodate the gig economy rather than forcing it into the old models of workplace laws and benefits, so this is a good step of policy experimentation and evolution that will hopefully encourage many better alternatives in other polities to the kind of idiocy displayed by AB5. The California legislature does generally need to be in control rather than proposition voters, but I guess this is one issue where they just blew it and maybe this prop will encourage people to rethink some aspects of the state political system.", 25. No on 16I wrote: "No per Scott Alexander and Max Ghenis. Moreover, changing affirmative action practices away from implicit indicators like poverty and towards explicit demographic checkboxes would probably make them less effective at uplifting the disadvantaged and increasing social mobility. And practices which explicitly favor certain demographic groups carry a substantial risk of tensions, abuse and backlash. This is particularly acute in California where progressives have extreme views relative to the rest of the nation while our right-wing minority is still surprisingly right wing.", 20, 21, 23, 24. |
| 2020 congressional primaries | Eliot Engel, mainly due to his support for foreign aid |
| Democratic presidential primaries for the 2020 US presidential election | Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Mike Bloomberg, Joe Biden; heavily driven by electability considerations |
Starting in late 2020, I've kept a string of statements on my website about short-term political issues which need to be elevated in the discourse, lobbying and activism of the moment.
| Date | My guidance |
| January 2023 - | "The international community must pressure Azerbaijan to lift its blockade of Artsakh, and international peacekeepers must protect Artsakh and its access to Armenia." |
| December 2022 - | "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is wrongFor all the complicated arguments about the war, a sound judgment can be made with two very simple points. First, the vast majority of people living in the directly affected territories - Ukraine proper, excluding Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk which were already under Russian protection - are very much opposed to the invasion (and even if one were to include all people in those other territories, a very large majority of residents of de jure Ukraine would still oppose the invasion). Second, claims that the invasion prevents genocide against the minority are baseless; in reality, the Russian military is guilty of the mass murder of Ukrainians.. The citizens of Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk should refuse to support this immoral and counterproductive war, Ukrainians are justified in fighting back, and other countries must collaborate with sanctions on Russia and abundant lethal military aid to Ukraine. The war should be prosecuted to achieve the following outcomes: 1) Ukrainian recapture of at minimum all territory seized by Russia since the start of the 2022 invasion or at maximum all formerly-Ukrainian territory except for Crimea. 2) Freedom for refugees to return safely to all territories. 3) the status of remaining territories beyond Ukrainian control being decided with internationally observed binding referenda according to the principle of self-determination. 4) Russia's acceptance of Ukraine's freedom to join NATO." |
| August 2022 - December 2022 | "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is wrongFor all the complicated arguments about the war, a sound judgment can be made with two very simple points. First, the vast majority of people living in the directly affected territories - Ukraine proper, excluding Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk which were already under Russian protection - are very much opposed to the invasion (and even if one were to include all people in those other territories, a very large majority of 'greater Ukrainians' would still oppose the invasion). Second, claims that the invasion prevents genocide against the minority are baseless; in reality, the Russian military is guilty of the mass murder of Ukrainians.. The citizens of Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk should refuse to support this immoral and counterproductive war, Ukrainians are justified in fighting back, and other countries must collaborate with sanctions on Russia and as much lethal military aid to Ukraine as is practical. Ideally, the war should end with recognition of rights to self-determination and free international association for all territories of Ukraine, with internationally observed, binding referenda to determine the status of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk." |
| July 2022 - December 2022 | "America should get serious about developing and producing pan-variant COVID vaccines." |
| March 2022 - July 2022 | "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is wrongFor all the complicated arguments about the war, a sound judgment can be made with two very simple points. First, the vast majority of people living in the directly affected territories - Ukraine proper, excluding Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk which were already under Russian protection - are very much opposed to the invasion (and even if one were to include all people in those other territories, a very large majority of 'greater Ukrainians' would still oppose the invasion). Second, claims that the invasion prevents genocide against the minority are baseless.. I call upon the people of Russia, Belarus, Donetsk and Luhansk to refuse to support this immoral and counterproductive war. People who wish to fight in defense of Ukraine are morally right in doing so. Prudent international aid to help the Ukrainian war effort is morally right. A peace settlement should include recognition of rights to self-determination and free international association for all four entities: Ukraine, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk; unfortunately each Russian advance reduces the prospects for Ukraine to keep these rights." |
| December 2021 - March 2022 | "We should start manufacturing vaccines for the Omicron variant and authorize and widely distribute Paxlovid." |
| July 2021 - June 2022 | "We should implement fractional dosing to stretch our vaccine supplies further." |
| June 2021 - June 2022 | "Countries which have surplus vaccines must share them worldwide. In particular, the Biden administration must stop following a self-defeating 'America First' policy and correct its "utterly embarrassing failure to quickly send extra U.S. vaccine doses overseas". To increase vaccine production, we should implement something like Caleb Watney's Marshall Plan to solve the vaccine shortfall. See also CGDev's Open Letter to the Biden Administration and US Congress." |
| June 2021 - | "We must allow every Uyghur in China to come to the United States as a refugee from political persecution." |
| June - October 2021 | "The United States Congress must pass voting legislation as suggested by Joe Manchin, and if Republicans don't vote for it then the Senate needs to abolish the filibuster." |
| March - June 2021 | "The biggest priority right now is for governments to distribute COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible. As Alex Tabarrok argues, we must approve new vaccines, administer first doses first, and try smaller doses." |
| February 2021 | "The important thing right now is for governments to distribute COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible. Approve new vaccines and administer first doses first (it's faster, more effective and still safe)." |
| January 2021 | "The important thing right now is for governments to distribute COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible. Approve the AstraZeneca vaccine now and delay second doses." |
| December 2020 | "If you can influence the Biden transition team, push them to select Marcia Fudge for Secretary of Agriculture." |